Bank of America analyst sees $3.2T semiconductor market by decade’s end

Bank of America just told Wall Street that AI spending fears are overblown, raising its semiconductor total addressable market forecast to $3.2 trillion by 2030. The previous estimate sat at $2.7 trillion, which itself was already an upgrade from an earlier $2 trillion projection. To put the trajectory in perspective: the semiconductor industry took roughly 50 years to reach $1 trillion in annual sales. BofA now expects the market to nearly double from its current valuation of approximately $1.7 trillion in roughly four years. The numbers behind the upgrade The bank’s research note revised its compound annual growth rate forecast for the 2026 to 2030 window to 18%, up from a prior estimate of 14%. BofA also raised its wafer fabrication equipment spending forecast for 2026 to $156 billion, up from $144 billion. That figure is projected to climb toward $360 billion by the end of the decade. The primary catalysts behind the revision are memory chips and data-center components, both of which are tightly coupled to the buildout of AI infrastructure. BofA’s note specifically dismisses concerns about a potential AI spending slowdown, pointing to ongoing customer orders and capacity commit...