Binance XRP open interest hits two-month high, but the signals underneath are bearish

XRP futures open interest on Binance surged to $232.7 million on August 17, marking a 28.6% jump from roughly $181 million just two weeks earlier. It’s the highest level since June, and on paper, that kind of spike usually signals growing conviction. Dig one layer deeper, though, and the picture flips. The problem is what’s happening alongside the open interest surge. Perpetual cumulative volume delta, a measure of whether aggressive buyers or sellers are driving trades, sat at negative $463.2 million on Binance. When open interest climbs while CVD craters, it typically means fresh short positions are flooding in, not longs piling on. From contraction to cautious aggression The rebound in open interest is especially notable given how quickly sentiment reversed. In July, Binance’s XRP open interest had contracted to a three-month low. The seven-day change metric swung from approximately negative $40 million on July 29 to a positive $38.9 million in short order. Analyst Amr Taha, who flagged the divergence, put it plainly. “The combination of rising open interest and declining perpetual CVD is consistent with new bearish positions being added.” The spot market tells a similar story. ...