Bitcoin broke away from AI stocks but now $96 oil could turn its escape into a trap

Bitcoin's daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.12 during the second quarter, down from 0.58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a joint report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode covering data through June 30.Its correlation with the Nasdaq sat at 0.21 over the same window, and gold moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin's correlation with the metal climbed to 0.57, and its correlation with silver reached 0.63.That reversal separates Bitcoin from the AI-driven equity trade that carried much of crypto's price action over the past two years, arriving as the Federal Reserve meets July 28-29, Microsoft and Meta report earnings July 29, and Amazon reports July 30.Hyperscaler capital-spending guidance and the Fed's rate decision arrive in the same week, inside the quarter Bitcoin just entered.Colin Basco of Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode's analyst team read the current phase the same way, describing a move from correction toward accumulation and pointing to on-chain data showing coins that last transacted within three months sitting at multi-year lows.They also found a climb in dormant supply, which, along with the on-chain data presented, represents a p...