Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036, but 82% of the forecast rests on one bet

Crypto asset manager Bitwise projected a $1.6 million Bitcoin price for 2036 in its updated outlook released Oct. 28, making the growth of a combined gold-and-Bitcoin market central to its investment case.Its 34.3% annual return forecast differs sharply from the 10% compound return assumption in JPMorgan's newly introduced Bitcoin scenarios. Applying that lower return to Bitwise’s starting price produces a roughly $1.4 million gap.An illustration compounds Bitwise’s $83,557 September reference price at 10% for exactly ten years, producing about $216,725. Bitcoin traded near $81,070 as of press time, with a market value of about $1.6 trillion.JPMorgan released its assumptions on Oct. 19, introducing Bitcoin return scenarios without adding it as an allocation in its main portfolio framework.Reports noted a 55% annualized volatility alongside JPMorgan’s 10% compound return assumption. Bitwise uses 27.8% as the midpoint between current and modeled 2036 volatility, and expects future institutional Bitcoin allocations of 1% to 5%.JPMorgan questions whether currency debasement will cause a rush into crypto, citing Bitcoin’s volatility and unstable correlations as obstacles to widespread p...