Bitcoin faces its highest Treasury hurdle since 2007 with $22.5B less crypto credit to unwind

The US 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.3% on Aug. 17 for the first time since June 2007, the same day Galaxy published a report showing crypto-collateralized lending down more than $22 billion from its peak. Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $64,610.01 that day.What makes the Treasury move unusual is its direction against the broader macro picture. Soft economic data this week pushed traders to cut the odds of a September Fed move to about 31%, down from 55% a week earlier, the kind of reaction that usually pulls long yields lower.The 30-year kept climbing anyway, reaching 5.2954% and as high as 5.314% intraday, putting it on track for its first close above 5.3% in nineteen years.SignalWhat changedRead-through for BitcoinLong-end Treasury pressure30-year yield crossed 5.3%, highest since 2007Raises the hurdle for non-yielding assets like BTCFed expectationsSeptember move odds fell to 31% from 55%Shows the pressure is not just a Fed-hawkishness storyReal yields30-year real yields near 3%, close to an 18-year highMakes inflation-adjusted Treasury returns more competitiveCrypto creditCollateralized lending down $22.53B from peakReduces the leftover credit overhang BTC has to absorbBitc...