Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Could Be Changing: Willy Woo Reveals What Could Replace It

The 4-year cycle is back on topic, but Willy Woo believes there's a more apparent pattern in play. Given the nature of its blockchain, bitcoin was long considered to move around within a broader four-year cycle prompted by the halving, which takes place in general every four years. However, the pattern has been rejected in the past year or so, and popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo took the same approach in his latest opinion on the matter. He suggested that BTC may be transitioning toward a six-to-eight-year cycle, increasingly influenced by the same debt and liquidity conditions that drive traditional financial markets. From Halving to Liquidity? Woo’s reasoning begins with the cryptocurrency’s diminishing supply shock. Following the latest halving in April 2024, new BTC issuance dropped to approximately 0.8% of the existing supply per year. The next event, scheduled to take place in early 2028, will reduce that figure to roughly 0.4%. As newly mined supply becomes increasingly insignificant relative to the existing market, Woo argued that the halving’s ability to dictate BTC’s broader price cycle weakens. Instead, the asset may begin moving more closely with TradFi’s six-to-eigh...