Bitcoin’s Recovery Faces a Reality Check: Cycle Conditions Remain Subdued

Bitcoin was rejected at $80,000 again, and subdued cycle indicators suggest investors shouldn't mistake the latest recovery for a lasting reversal. Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound after Wednesday’s election-driven selloff, when uncertainty over the US midterm results sent the crypto asset tumbling to nearly $75,600, its lowest level in almost seven weeks. It tapped $81,000 but then lost all the gained traction, dumping to $76,000. But the new data shows that the pullback may not be over just yet. CryptoQuant flagged that certain indicators are nowhere near the extreme conditions often seen around major turning points. Further Downside Risk The Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has dropped to 15.8% on its 30-day moving average, putting it in the Watch / Mild Pressure zone. BTC is roughly 46% below its previous all-time high, which is still a substantial drawdown, but the index remains well below levels linked to an active or extreme cycle phase. Looking back, the 2021 cycle saw sharp spikes in the index as the crypto asset approached its peak and volatility picked up. Similar surges appeared during the 2024-2025 advance. This time, things look different. Cycle intensity has eased consider...