Bond markets already looking past summer as Jackson Hole looms, says Tradition Dubai’s Steven Major

It’s mid-August, and the bond market has apparently decided that beach season is over. Steven Major, global macro advisor at Tradition (Dubai) Ltd, says the fixed-income world is already laser-focused on the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for August 27-29. Major, who joined Tradition Dubai in December 2025 after spending 24 years at HSBC, has been one of the more closely watched voices in fixed income this year. His assessment: the long end of the yield curve is moving higher because markets are slowly accepting that developed-market central banks aren’t rushing to cut rates anytime soon. The yield curve tells a story of caution Since early February 2026, the 2s10s yield curve has flattened by 17 basis points in the US, 21 basis points in the UK, and 23 basis points in the Eurozone. UK 2-year gilt yields sit at 4.12% as of August 17, well above where most economists peg the neutral rate. Across the Channel, Eurozone 2-year yields range from 2.43% in Germany to 2.67% in Italy. The spread between those two numbers reflects the persistent gap in how markets price sovereign credit risk within the bloc. Why Jackson Hole matters more than usual This year’s theme, “Fina...