Carlyle Group’s Jason Thomas warns AI financing mirrors pre-crisis mortgages

Jason Thomas, Managing Director and Head of Global Research and Investment Strategy at Carlyle Group, is drawing an uncomfortable parallel between today’s AI infrastructure lending boom and the mortgage finance playbook that preceded the 2008 financial crisis. In his report titled “Let Them Eat Compute: Data Centers’ Implications for Mortgage Finance,” Thomas argues that the sheer velocity of capital flowing into AI-related infrastructure is distorting credit markets, pushing interest rates higher, and squeezing out traditional borrowers, particularly in housing. AI infrastructure spending is consuming hundreds of billions of dollars per quarter, compounding at a 40-60% annualized rate. The capital vacuum The numbers paint a vivid picture. Hyperscalers have increased their property, plant, and equipment by 50-200% since late 2023, according to Carlyle’s data. Meanwhile, the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate sat at 6.58% as of August 2025. For new homebuyers, the math is punishing. Existing homeowners locked into lower rates years ago are sitting pretty by comparison, creating a two-tier housing market where the haves and have-nots are separated primarily by when they signed their pape...