Citi expects Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in June, September, and December 2027

Citigroup is sticking with a distinctly dovish call on the Federal Reserve’s next moves, forecasting three separate 25 basis point rate cuts in June, September, and December of 2027. In a market where some banks are still debating whether the next move is a cut or a hike, Citi’s positioning stands out like a dove at a hawk convention. The forecast places Citi squarely at odds with much of Wall Street, where persistent inflation and a cautious Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh have pushed consensus timelines for easing further into the future. Bloomberg’s June 2026 economist survey landed on a median expectation for the first cut in June 2027, with a second by December, which at least gives Citi some company on timing if not on the total number of reductions. Where Citi stands versus the rest of Wall Street Citi’s rate path projections have been evolving. The bank had previously penciled in 25 basis point cuts for October and December 2026, followed by another in January 2027. Those earlier forecasts were pushed back after stronger-than-expected economic data and Warsh’s pivot away from forward guidance toward a more strictly data-dependent approach at the Fed. Citi’s reasoning rests ...