Clarity Act passage odds rise to 30% on Polymarket after Senate revisions

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act just got a little less unlikely to become law. Polymarket odds for the bill passing in 2026 climbed to roughly 30% after Senate Republicans dropped a revised version of the sweeping crypto regulatory framework on September 10, up from the mid-20s where they’d been sitting for most of the summer. What changed in the revised bill The new Senate draft clocks in at 630 pages and incorporates more than 114 provisions that Democrats had requested. That’s a significant concession from Senate Republicans, who clearly decided that ideological purity was less important than actually getting to 60 votes. Among the key structural changes: non-decentralized trading protocols would be required to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The revised bill also narrowed its DeFi provisions to focus specifically on spot and cash transactions. The cloture vote is scheduled for September 15 at 2:15 p.m. ET. Senate rules require 60 votes to clear cloture, and with Republicans holding 53 seats, the math demands at least seven Democratic senators cross the aisle. The long road to this vote The House passed its version, H.R. 3633, on July 17, 2025, by a ...