CLARITY Act: The Senate Votes September 15, And Traders Give It A 14% Chance

On September 15, the US Senate holds a procedural vote that will decide whether the crypto industry gets the regulatory framework it has been chasing for five years, or whether the whole thing dies until at least 2027.The bill is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Prediction markets currently price its chance of becoming law this year at 14%, down from a peak of 82% in February. That gap between how important this bill is and how little the market believes in it is the story.Here is what is actually on the table.What Does The CLARITY Act Actually Do?Strip away the politics and the bill answers one question: who regulates crypto in the United States, the SEC or the CFTC?Right now the answer is "both, unpredictably, through enforcement actions." The CLARITY Act replaces that with a split. The CFTC gets exclusive authority over digital commodities, which covers spot trading of assets like Bitcoin. The SEC keeps authority over digital securities and over issuers. The bill also sets out criteria for when an asset is decentralized enough to stop being treated as a security and start being treated as a commodity.The Senate version introduced a term that matters more than it sounds: the...