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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong thinks Bitcoin’s floor is in. On June 15, Armstrong stated his belief that Bitcoin likely bottomed around $60,000, leaning on the cryptocurrency’s well-documented four-year halving cycle as his compass. The call came just ten days after BTC touched approximately $59,743 on June 5, its lowest level since October 2024.
The case Armstrong is making
Bitcoin recovered from roughly $59,743 to over $66,000 in the days that followed, suggesting at least some buyers agreed the price was attractive at those levels.
Armstrong also characterized the recent decline as relatively mild compared to previous crypto winters. Bitcoin’s June low sat approximately 50% below its October 2025 record high of $126,000. The 2022 collapse wiped out roughly 75% of BTC’s value from peak to trough.
The market isn’t so sure
Armstrong himself seemed to acknowledge the uncertainty when he ran a poll on X in mid-July. The results were not exactly a ringing endorsement of his bottom call. Out of more than 20,000 respondents, 56% said they did not believe the bottom was in. Only 44% sided with Armstrong’s view.
On-chain metrics offer some support for the cautious camp. Bitcoin was recently trading near its realized price of about $53,600. The realized price represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation, essentially what the average holder paid for their coins.
ETF flows have also been unstable. The spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched in early 2024 were supposed to provide a steady institutional bid for BTC. Instead, flows have been choppy, oscillating between inflows and outflows without establishing a clear trend during the recent downturn.
Armstrong’s longer game
Armstrong co-founded Coinbase with Fred Ehrsam back in 2012, and the company’s revenue is directly tied to crypto trading volumes and asset prices.
The halving cycle framework he’s referencing does have historical precedent on its side. Previous cycles saw Bitcoin bottom roughly 12-18 months after a peak, followed by a prolonged recovery that eventually produced new all-time highs. If that pattern holds, the $60,000 zone would be roughly consistent with where prior cycle bottoms have landed relative to their peaks.
What this means for investors
The realized price of $53,600 is the number worth watching. If Bitcoin holds above that level through the summer, Armstrong’s bottom call gains credibility. If it breaks below, the conversation shifts from “is the bottom in” to “how much further down do we go.”
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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