CryptoQuant analysis suggests bear cycle return is unlikely despite macro headwinds

Bitcoin’s on-chain data is telling a story that runs counter to the doom-and-gloom mood hanging over crypto markets. A CryptoQuant Quicktake report published on September 17, authored by contributor Crypto Dan, finds that the percentage of Bitcoin UTXOs currently sitting at a loss has dropped sharply, a pattern that has historically marked the tail end of bear cycles rather than the beginning of new ones. A Fed rate hike, the first since 2023, and the US Senate’s narrow rejection of the CLARITY Act just two days earlier have given traders plenty of reasons to fret. But CryptoQuant’s conclusion is straightforward: structural improvements on the Bitcoin network outweigh those macro pressures, making a full return to bear market territory unlikely. What the UTXO data actually shows UTXOs, or unspent transaction outputs, are essentially the building blocks of Bitcoin’s ledger. Think of them as individual coins sitting in wallets, each carrying the price at which they were last moved. When a large share of UTXOs are “in loss,” meaning the current price is below the price at which those coins last changed hands, it signals widespread pain across the network. The key finding in Crypto Dan...