Danny Moses identifies 10-year yield, Nvidia as key market assets

Danny Moses, the former FrontPoint Partners head trader who became a household name after his role in the 2008 financial crisis was immortalized in The Big Short, is pointing investors toward two assets he considers the gravitational center of modern markets: the 10-year US Treasury yield and Nvidia. The yield that won’t quit The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering in the 4.65% to 4.75% range, a level that continues to demand attention from equity investors whether they like it or not. At those levels, the risk-free rate is doing something uncomfortable: it’s competing directly with stock market returns. To put that in perspective, Nvidia’s dividend yield sits somewhere between 0.03% and 0.46%. The government is paying you more to park your money in bonds than the world’s most important AI company pays in dividends. The persistence of elevated yields reflects several overlapping pressures. Federal deficits remain substantial, forcing the Treasury to issue enormous quantities of new debt. AI infrastructure spending is soaking up capital at an unprecedented rate. And a wall of existing debt needs to be refinanced at higher rates than when it was originally issued. Moses has fram...