Emerging market currencies and stocks pause as oil prices near $100

The rally in emerging market currencies and equities hit the brakes on September 8 as Brent crude crept toward the psychologically loaded $100-per-barrel mark. Oil traded in a range between $97 and $99, reaching six-week highs and reminding investors that geopolitics still has veto power over market momentum. The MSCI EM currency index slipped 0.1%, snapping a four-day winning streak. The oil factor The proximate cause of crude’s surge is the escalating US-Iran conflict. Strikes on Iranian tankers and Saudi energy infrastructure have rattled global supply chains, with threats of “economic warfare” adding a rhetorical accelerant to an already volatile situation. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes on any given day, sits at the center of the anxiety. Fears over shipping safety through that chokepoint have pushed prices higher and kept them there. Analysts are now projecting that supply disruptions could persist well into 2027. Domestically in the US, the pressure is visible at the pump. Gasoline prices hit record highs above $4 per gallon over the Labor Day weekend, stoking inflation concerns that ripple outward into global monetary po...