Fed July minutes eyed as bond markets recover from sell-off

Market participants are closely monitoring the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and upcoming debt auctions. This attention comes amid a recovery in global government bond markets following a recent sell-off. The focus on the Fed’s minutes suggests potential insights into future monetary policy decisions, particularly concerning the likelihood of a pause in interest rate hikes. Concurrently, Thai schools have initiated shooting drills in response to a recent school attack, highlighting regional security concerns. The prediction market centered around the Federal Reserve’s decisions from June to September shows increased activity. The sub-market indicating a pause in rate decisions for the upcoming meetings is currently priced at 72.5% YES, up from 70% a day earlier and a significant rise from 60% a week ago. This suggests growing confidence among market participants that the Fed may opt for a pause scenario. The July minutes could provide further clarity on the Fed’s stance, particularly if inflation data aligns with market expectations. Meanwhile, the market for a potential rate increase in October 2026 shows lower probability, with a 23.5% YES indication, down...