Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows rising inflation expectations in June 2026

Americans are bracing for higher prices. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations found that median one-year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 3.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. That’s the highest reading since September 2023.

The survey covered roughly 1,300 household heads across June and represents a reversal from the relatively stable or declining short-term expectations recorded in May.

Where the pain is coming from

Two categories drove the bulk of the concern: medical care and rent.

Expected medical care costs jumped 0.5 percentage points to 9.4%. Rent expectations rose by an even sharper 0.9 percentage points, landing at 8.3%.

Gas price growth expectations fell sharply, dropping 3.5 percentage points to just 1.5%, the lowest forecast recorded since August 2022. Expectations for food and college education costs also declined.

Three-year inflation expectations also rose 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. Five-year expectations held steady at 3.0%.

Why this matters for markets and monetary policy

The New York Fed has tracked these expectations since 2013, and the SCE is considered one of the more reliable gauges of where consumer sentiment is heading.

The medical care and rent components deserve particular attention from a monetary policy perspective. These are services-side costs, not goods. The Fed’s rate hiking cycle was highly effective at cooling goods inflation, but services inflation has proven more durable.

The June survey showed a slight deterioration in credit availability expectations, even as perceptions of the labor market and household finances improved modestly.

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