Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows unemployment fears at highest since April 2020

American consumers are feeling the squeeze, and the data backs up the vibes. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, published on September 8, paints a picture of households increasingly worried about their jobs, their debts, and their ability to keep up with rising costs. The most striking number: the mean probability that consumers assign to US unemployment rising over the next year jumped 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%. That’s the highest reading since April 2020, when the economy was still reeling from pandemic-era shutdowns. The numbers tell a grim story The SCE survey, an internet-based monthly poll of roughly 1,300 US household heads conducted from August 3 through August 31, serves as one of the Fed’s key gauges of consumer sentiment. A growing share of households reported that their financial situations had worsened compared to a year ago. At the same time, expectations for future conditions also declined. On the employment front, the probability of landing a new job after losing a current one fell 0.8 percentage points to 45.4%. Credit stress is mounting too. The probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three ...