Fidelity says Bitcoin can appreciate without taking market share from gold

Fidelity Digital Assets wants to settle a debate that has consumed crypto and macro Twitter for years: does Bitcoin need to eat gold’s lunch to go up in price? The answer, according to the firm’s VP of Research Chris Kuiper, is a clean no. In an updated report titled “Getting Off Zero” for 2026, Fidelity argues that Bitcoin’s value appreciates primarily against the US dollar, driven by macroeconomic forces like liquidity expansion and inflation expectations. Gold doesn’t need to lose for Bitcoin to win. The zero-allocation problem The core thesis of the report is deceptively simple. Fidelity frames a zero allocation to Bitcoin as functionally equivalent to holding a short position. In a market-neutral context, choosing to own none of an asset that has outperformed virtually every other investment class over the past decade is itself a directional bet. The firm’s modeling suggests that even modest Bitcoin allocations, in the range of 1-3% of a traditional portfolio, can meaningfully improve risk-adjusted returns. For investors willing to push further, allocations of up to roughly 9-10% can maximize those returns within a standard 60/40 stock-bond portfolio framework. The recommended...