Five days, a 30% chance, and a battle over Trump’s crypto profits: Inside the Senate’s scramble to pass CLARITY Act before Friday

The CLARITY Act enters the Senate's final scheduled week before the August recess. Monday's floor schedule opens with H.R. 6500, a government funding vehicle, and CLARITY has yet to appear on the schedule.Negotiators are still working through disputes over government ethics and stablecoin rewards, and prediction markets price the odds of the bill becoming law this year below even money.Aug. 7 is the last scheduled weekday before recess, as the Senate's state work period begins Aug. 10 and runs through Sept. 11, leaving senators five weekdays to produce floor action before the break.A missed window sends the fight into September, when a busier Senate calendar could make floor time harder to find.Date / windowWhat happensWhy it mattersJuly 17, 2025House passes H.R. 3633 by 294-134Gives the Senate a House-passed vehicle to work fromMay 14, 2026Senate Banking Committee advances its version 15-9Shows committee-level bipartisan support, but not floor readinessJuly 22Lummis releases merged Banking/Agriculture textCreates the current negotiating draftAug. 3–7Final scheduled pre-recess Senate weekFive weekdays remain for floor action before the breakAug. 10–Sept. 11Senate state work periodC...