Private credit defaults vary significantly by reporting source, creating a transparency problem for investors

Depending on who you ask, private credit is either performing just fine or showing real cracks. Manager-reported default rates hover around 1-2%. Fitch Ratings puts the number at 6.3%. That’s not a rounding error. It’s a canyon-sized gap in one of the most important metrics investors use to gauge risk in a multi-trillion-dollar asset class. The discrepancy boils down to something deceptively simple: different institutions define “default” differently. And in a market that lacks the standardized public reporting found in high-yield bonds or syndicated loans, those definitional choices matter enormously. The numbers, and why they don’t agree Fitch’s trailing twelve-month default rate for US private credit hit 6.3% through August 2026, ticking up from 6.1% in July. In August alone, Fitch counted 14 default events involving 11 unique borrowers and 3 repeat offenders. Two sectors are bearing the brunt. Healthcare providers and industrial/manufacturing companies each reported default rates near 9.9%, roughly one in ten borrowers in those categories. But walk across the street to Proskauer’s Private Credit Default Index and you get a very different picture. Their Q2 2026 reading came in a...