French finance ministry projects public debt-to-GDP ratio at 119% in 2026, 122% in 2027

France’s finance ministry dropped its 2027 draft budget on September 19, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to hit 119.3% this year and climb to 121.7% in 2027, a record that places Europe’s second-largest economy in a category of indebtedness typically reserved for countries whose fiscal reputations have already taken serious hits. To put that in perspective, France’s debt already stood at 117.5% of GDP as of the first quarter of 2026, translating to roughly €3.536 trillion in absolute terms. The budget math isn’t adding up The ministry forecasts a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026, actually worse than the 5.1% recorded in 2025. The goal for 2027 is to bring that down to 5%, which the ministry itself has characterized as ambitious yet achievable. On the revenue side, tax receipts are expected to tick up by 0.3 percentage points as a share of GDP, pushing the overall tax burden to 44.2% in 2027 from 43.9% in 2026. The macroeconomic assumptions underlying the budget are notably subdued. GDP growth is projected at just 0.5% for 2026 with inflation at 2.1%. Things improve slightly in 2027 with growth forecast at 1.0% and inflation moderating to 1.8%. What markets and po...