Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo say Treasury buybacks won’t cut long rates

The US Treasury doubled the size of its bond buyback operations this week, and Wall Street’s reaction can be summed up in two words: nice try. Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and other major firms have concluded that the department’s expanded repurchase program will do little to reverse the sharp climb in long-term yields that has rattled markets throughout 2026. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on August 19, its highest level in 19 years, and while it pulled back slightly after the announcement, it settled around 5.25% by the following day. The buyback math doesn’t add up Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the increase on August 19, raising the per-operation cap for longer-dated nominal coupon securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The new limits take effect September 9 and run through November 4, targeting the 10- to 30-year portion of the curve where pain has been most acute. The total additional support from the expanded program comes to roughly $14 billion for the quarter. That sounds meaningful until you remember the Treasury market is roughly $32 trillion in size. Luis Alvarado from Wells Fargo described the buyback increase as offering “just short-te...