Goldman sees Brent crude hitting $120 if Hormuz disruptions last until 2027

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price target, forecasting Brent crude could reach as high as $120 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist until 2027. This significant adjustment reflects the ongoing volatility and supply risks associated with the critical maritime chokepoint. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, has already experienced fluctuations, around $90 per barrel in recent weeks. The bank’s revised outlook suggests that the prolonged instability in the region could maintain a substantial supply-risk premium embedded in oil prices. This development has implications for prediction markets, particularly those speculating on whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by the end of the year. Currently, the market for a new all-time high by September 30 is priced at just 1.2% YES, while the December 31 market shows a more substantial 9.5% YES. These figures indicate that market participants are weighing the potential impact of geopolitical factors and supply disruptions on future oil prices. The situation is further complicated by various factors, including OPEC’s production decisions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and global oil ...