How Will Crypto Markets React to Today’s $10 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry?

Another Friday has rolled around, and this one is the last of the month, meaning a much bigger Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry event. Around 149,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, July 31, with a notional value of roughly $9.57 billion. This expiry is much larger than usual events, being the end of the month, so it may induce spot market volatility. Crypto markets have retreated slightly this week, with around $25 billion leaving the space following the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged and the resumption of military action between the US and Iran. Bitcoin Options Expiry This week’s big batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.28, meaning that there are way more (call) contracts expiring compared to short (put) contracts. Max pain is around $64,000, which is pretty close to current spot prices, so many will be in the money on expiry. Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at the $70,000 and $72,000 strike prices on Deribit, with $2.4 billion at each, but short sellers still have $1.3 billion in OI at $60,000. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has risen over the pa...