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Iran holds the US accountable for any disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, citing ongoing aggression. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 13% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
The May 15 market dropped from 20% to 13% YES in 24 hours following Iran’s statement. The decline tracks with Iran’s firm stance, which points to continued blockages and restricted shipping routes. With 21 days until resolution, $4,658 is needed to move the odds by five points, suggesting moderate trader interest.
The likelihood of Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31 has also fallen. The Trump Hormuz blockade announcement market dropped to 58% YES from 72% yesterday. Daily volume is $95,253 in USDC, and $8,975 is required to shift odds by five points, showing significant resistance to upward movement.
Iran’s no-compromise posture reduces the odds of any quick resolution or easing of restrictions. For traders, buying YES shares in the May 15 Strait of Hormuz market at 13¢ offers a hypothetical 7.7x return, but that requires diplomatic progress within three weeks that currently looks unlikely.
Watch for statements from General Michael Kurilla and any shifts in CENTCOM’s naval posture. New deployments or changes in IRGC actions could move both markets.
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