Iran nuclear sites remain insecure, inspections unlikely: Eslami

Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami has told state media that the country remains in a wartime situation and that its nuclear sites have not been secured for inspections. This statement comes amidst ongoing tensions following direct strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel and the United States in 2025. The situation at the bombed sites remains unstable, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unable to verify conditions due to restricted access. Eslami’s remarks highlight the continued insecurity and potential military concerns that prevent normalization of inspection protocols at these sites. The market for IAEA visits to Iranian nuclear sites reflects skepticism regarding imminent inspections. The probability of IAEA officials visiting Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz by August 31 is currently priced at 0.4% YES, suggesting that market participants see such visits as highly unlikely. Odds for visits by October 31 stand at 5.5% YES, while December 31 odds are at 13.0% YES, indicating a slight increase in perceived likelihood over time but still reflecting significant uncertainty. Key Takeaways Eslami’s statement suggests that Iran’s nuclear sites remain insecure, imp...