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Iran’s deputy defense minister stated the country is willing to share its defensive capabilities with Asian partners, particularly members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market dropped to 1% YES, down from 7% twenty-four hours ago.
The announcement points to a strengthening of military alliances against US interests, making a nuclear deal by end of April less likely. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market has odds at 1% YES. A week ago, the same market was at 68% YES. Face value of trades is about $107,556 daily, but only $7,699 in actual USDC changes hands, indicating cautious participation.
In the Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market, odds are at 0.8% YES, down from 3% a day ago. Traders see little chance of a peace deal in the near term. The June 30 market sits higher at 7.5% YES.
The US-Iran diplomatic meeting location market, resolving by June 30, is at 19.8% YES, suggesting decreased expectations for near-term diplomatic contact.
Despite the $107,556 face value, actual USDC traded in the nuclear deal market is $7,699. It takes $1,550 to move the market 5 points, meaning relatively modest capital could cause sharp price swings.
Iran’s outreach to SCO members adds a new obstacle to US-Iran negotiations. For a YES bet on the nuclear deal to pay off, a dramatic shift would need to happen within six days. At 1¢, a YES share pays $1, but the probability implied by the market makes this a long shot.
Watch for new statements from the White House or Iranian state media. Any official acknowledgment of resumed negotiations could move these markets quickly.
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