Kalshi traders bet on a hot September CPI print but hesitate at 0.6%

Inflation traders on Kalshi have mostly settled the question of direction. Nearly everyone expects September consumer prices to rise. The real debate is how much. On the CFTC-regulated prediction market, the contract for a month-over-month CPI increase above 0.4% trades at 90 cents. That implies a 90% probability. Economists at Continuum Economics have penciled in a 0.6% monthly rise, a number that would push annual inflation noticeably higher. What the Kalshi odds are saying For September 2026 CPI, the ladder looks like this: Above 0.4% MoM: 90 cents, or a 90% implied probability. Above 0.5% MoM: 60 cents, or 60% odds. Above 0.6% MoM: around 18 cents, with odds hovering at about 17% to 20%. That leaves Kalshi’s crowd clustered mostly in the 0.4% to 0.5% zone. The annual picture The year-over-year contracts tell a similar story. Kalshi is pricing September annual CPI somewhere in a band from 3.5% to 3.7%. The contract for annual inflation above 3.5% trades at 84 cents. The contract for above 3.6% trades at 42 cents. Continuum Economics sees things running a bit hotter. Its forecast of a 0.6% monthly gain could lift the annual rate from 3.4% in August to around 3.7%. That would sit ...