Mantic raises $25M for superhuman forecasting led by Radical Ventures

A London-based AI startup that can apparently predict the future better than humans just secured $25 million to prove it wasn’t a fluke. Mantic, founded in 2024, closed a seed round led by Radical Ventures with participation from Microsoft’s M12 venture fund, Balderton Capital, and several angel investors. The money will go toward scaling the company’s AI forecasting models, which specialize in the kind of messy, real-world predictions that spreadsheets and traditional quantitative methods tend to bungle. Beating humans at their own game Mantic’s headline credential is its performance in the summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, an online forecasting tournament that pits participants against each other on questions about geopolitics, economics, culture, and policy. The startup’s AI system outperformed every single human entrant. The only competitor that finished ahead of Mantic was another AI called “laertes.” So the top of the leaderboard was entirely non-human. What makes Mantic’s approach distinctive is the problem set it targets. The company focuses on what it calls “judgmental forecasting,” predictions that span timeframes from one week to one year, in domains where pure data-driven mode...