Market Pricing Favors October Fed Hold, With 2026 Hike Risk Intact

October FOMC Polymarket odds now point firmly to a pause. Traders price an 84% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates at its October meeting, against just 16% for a 25-basis-point hike. The shift followed New York Fed President John Williams’s signal that another increase does not require immediate action. These are market-implied odds, not a Fed forecast, and Williams left the door open to a hike later in 2026. This is not simply a repricing of one meeting. It is a shift in the market’s near-term policy expectation, while the possibility of further tightening later in the year remains in view. 🔥MASSIVE: 🇺🇸 Fed rate hike odds just dropped to 13.8%. SEND EVERYTHING HIGHER🚀 https://t.co/4uPlHBfT3v pic.twitter.com/SikJmfeRYe — Max Crypto (@MaxCrypto) October 2, 2026 Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is On PolymarketWhat Are October FOMC Polymarket Odds Showing Now? The repricing has been fast. Hold odds jumped 35 percentage points in a day, while hike odds fell 33 points. Only a week ago, a hike led this market with about 67%. The contract has drawn nearly $23 million in volume and is set to resolve on October 28. All other outcomes sit near zero: 25-basis-point cut: about 1% 50+ basis-...