Morgan Stanley reiterates Bitcoin’s digital gold thesis in new research

Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee has formally endorsed Bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign store of value, drawing a direct parallel to gold and recommending it as a legitimate portfolio allocation for clients across the risk spectrum. What the allocation framework actually looks like The GIC’s recommended Bitcoin exposure ranges from 0-2% for balanced growth portfolios and climbs to 2-4% for clients with a higher risk tolerance and a more opportunistic mandate. Those numbers were formalized in October 2025 and reflect the committee’s view that Bitcoin’s fixed supply and low current penetration make it a credible long-term holding. Morgan Stanley estimates Bitcoin’s market cap represents roughly 2% of a $130 trillion addressable market. That market is defined as the combined value of global M2 money supply and gold. The bank’s research projects annualized returns for Bitcoin across several adoption scenarios. A flat-adoption environment produces returns in the neighborhood of 3%. A baseline scenario tied to steady population growth points toward 6-7% annually. Accelerated adoption could push returns closer to 10%. These are scenario-based return estimates grounded in use...