OECD forecasts AI boom to mitigate Middle East energy shock

The global economy is doing slightly better than expected in 2026, and the reason is surprisingly specific: companies are spending enormous sums on data centers, chips, and AI infrastructure. That wave of capital expenditure is acting as a counterweight to an energy shock that keeps getting worse. The OECD’s Interim Economic Outlook, released September 23, nudged its 2026 global GDP growth forecast up to 2.9%, from 2.8% in June. Not exactly a champagne-popping revision, but in an environment where an escalating Middle East conflict is squeezing oil and gas supply, holding steady counts as a win. The AI cushion and the energy drag The upgrade is largely a story about the United States. The OECD now projects US growth at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, powered by capital pouring into AI-related infrastructure. Japan and South Korea are catching a tailwind too, benefiting as technology exporters to the AI buildout. The Middle East conflict, which intensified in early 2026, has disrupted oil and gas supply enough to push energy prices meaningfully higher. Governments have leaned on strategic inventories and alternative supply sources to absorb the blow, but the OECD warns those buffers ...