Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index swings to 22 in September after negative August reading

The Philadelphia Fed’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey landed at 22.0 for September, a sharp reversal from August’s -8.2 reading. To put that swing in context: a diffusion index above zero means more firms are reporting expansion than contraction. Moving from negative territory to 22.0 in a single month suggests that whatever was spooking services-sector businesses in August didn’t stick around for long. What the numbers actually tell us The Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey, or NBOS, tracks firms across Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania. These are companies outside the manufacturing world: think healthcare providers, retailers, logistics firms, restaurants, and professional services. The survey has been running monthly since 2011, making it a well-established barometer for regional economic health in the services sector. Its diffusion indexes capture changes in general activity, new orders, sales, employment, and prices at the firm level. September’s 22.0 reading follows a volatile stretch. July came in at 17.5, which looked solid. Then August cratered to -8.2, raising questions about whether the services economy was hitting a wall...