Polymarket bettors give Hamas disarmament by year-end a 61% chance after Trump peace deal announcement

Polymarket traders are betting that Hamas will commit to disarming by December 31, 2026, with the leading outcome sitting at a 61% probability. The prediction market, which launched on June 30 and runs on the Polygon blockchain, has already attracted over $2.98 million in total volume. The deal that moved the needle On July 30, US President Donald Trump announced that a US-led Board of Peace had reached an agreement with Hamas and other armed factions in Gaza. Trump called it a “historic milestone.” The agreement lays out a comprehensive 15-point roadmap. It covers weapons decommissioning, the transfer of governing authority to a technocratic National Committee for Administration, and international oversight mechanisms designed to verify compliance. The details are supposed to be finalized within 14 days of the announcement. Hamas has expressed conditional acceptance, tying its willingness to disarm to Israeli withdrawals and other stipulations. Some of those conditions trace back to ceasefire terms established as early as October 2025. Israel has issued no formal statement in response to the agreement. What the market is actually pricing The December 31, 2026 outcome has accumulat...