Polymarket shows 84% odds of another Fed rate hike in 2026

Polymarket bettors are overwhelmingly convinced the Federal Reserve isn’t done hiking rates this year. The blockchain-based prediction market currently reflects an 84% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates again before 2026 ends. The contract comes on the heels of the Fed’s September 16 decision to raise rates by 25 basis points, pushing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. That move marked the first hike since 2023. Polymarket traders had that one dialed in too, pricing the September hike at 80-89% probability before the FOMC meeting even wrapped. What the prediction markets are saying The 84% headline number only tells part of the story. Dig into Polymarket’s related contracts and the picture gets more specific. Traders are placing roughly 57% odds on exactly two total hikes in 2026, suggesting most believe the September increase was just the opening act. There’s also a near coin-flip on an October hike, with probabilities hovering around 50-51%. The “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?” contract itself has seen approximately $38,000 in trading volume. That’s modest by Polymarket standards, where politically charged contracts routinely attract millions. But related Fed contra...