Russia and Ukraine exchange strikes despite Trump’s truce claim

Russia and Ukraine engaged in overnight strikes, contradicting former U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that both nations agreed to refrain from targeting energy facilities. The conflict, part of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, has seen both sides continue to disrupt each other’s energy infrastructure despite diplomatic efforts. Trump’s claim of a truce appears at odds with the on-ground realities, as evidenced by the recent exchanges. This development comes amid a backdrop of stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations aimed at reaching a broader settlement. Key Takeaways The continuation of strikes between Russia and Ukraine suggests a lack of progress towards a ceasefire. Market pricing indicates a decline in confidence for a ceasefire agreement by December 31, with odds remaining at 22% YES. The latest developments appear consistent with a decrease in the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement occurring in the near term. What to Watch Observers should closely monitor any official statements from key actors such as Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, as these could influence market perceptions of a potential ceasefire. Developments in U.S. diplomatic efforts and any significant military actio...