Russians fear new mobilization in Ukraine war after elections

Russians are reportedly concerned that President Vladimir Putin could order a significant new mobilization for the ongoing war in Ukraine following the recent parliamentary elections. This fear arises amidst ongoing military tensions, as Russian forces continue their offensive operations against Ukraine. The prospect of another mobilization suggests a potential escalation in the conflict, which has persisted since Russia’s initial invasion in February 2022. If Putin does proceed with expanding military manpower beyond the current volunteer-recruitment system, it would mark a significant shift in Russia’s military strategy, reminiscent of the partial mobilization in 2022 that faced substantial domestic opposition. Key Takeaways The possibility of a new mobilization by Russia appears to indicate an escalation in its military efforts in Ukraine, which could influence the likelihood of Russian forces entering cities like Sloviansk. Market pricing suggests participants view the reported fears of mobilization as consistent with a potential increase in military action, impacting related prediction markets. Current odds for Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026, are at 11% YES, re...