Russians headed to the polls on Sunday for a third and final day of tightly controlled parliamentary elections set to strengthen the Kremlin’s grip on power, as the Ukraine war grinds through its fifth year.

Russians participated in the final day of parliamentary elections, which are expected to reinforce the Kremlin’s control amid ongoing conflict with Ukraine. The elections, described as tightly controlled, coincide with the fifth year of the war, underscoring the Kremlin’s focus on regime consolidation rather than political liberalization. Markets appear to interpret this controlled electoral environment as supportive of the United Russia party securing victories across all regions, consistent with the Kremlin’s strategy to maintain power. The market for United Russia winning every region in these elections has seen significant activity, with pricing currently indicating a 72% likelihood of this outcome. This reflects an increase from 65% just 24 hours ago. The controlled nature of the elections and the political landscape appear to align with scenarios favoring United Russia’s dominance, driven by administrative mobilization efforts and the absence of significant opposition challenges. Observers note that United Russia’s success is consistent with the Kremlin’s approach to governance during the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. The lack of serious opposition and the controlled electio...