Societe Generale analysts expect RBI rate hikes in October and December as inflation pressures mount

Subadra Rajappa, Managing Director and Head of Research for SG Americas at Societe Generale, is flagging interest rate hikes in December and potentially March as inflation refuses to cooperate with central bank doves. The case for tightening Multiple analysts now anticipate the Reserve Bank of India raising its repo rate by 25 basis points in both October and December 2026, with further tightening expected into early 2027. The current RBI repo rate sits at 5.25%, a level that followed previous easing cycles designed to support growth. Kunal Kundu, another analyst tracking the RBI’s policy path, has adjusted his forecasts upward based on recent inflation and growth data. Rajappa has been publicly discussing Fed policy and global market reactions since late 2025, and her recent commentary suggests limited urgency for rate cuts beyond December. Oil above $100 changes the calculus With global oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel as of September 2026, inflationary risks aren’t just theoretical anymore. They’re showing up in transport costs, manufacturing inputs, and eventually, grocery bills. Rajappa’s focus on the broader market reaction to yields, rather than committing to a rigid tim...