This Bitcoin Cycle Theory Puts $350K in Focus Before the Next Crash

Bitcoin’s current cycle could last until 2028 because bearish macroeconomic conditions have persisted twice as long as in previous cycles. Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland expects Bitcoin to exceed $250,000 this cycle and says a later 70% bear market would need a peak of $350,000 or more, even though BTC trades near $82,000 today. The case rests on a theory that this cycle runs eight years instead of four, which would put the top in 2028 and push the real downturn years out. The Case for an Eight-Year Cycle In a set of posts on X, Hyland pointed to a chart first shared on June 26 showing that the 2022-2026 stretch of bearish macro conditions, meaning the broader economic backdrop for risk assets, lasted twice as long as the 2014-2016 and 2018-2020 stretches. Bitcoin’s cycle follows that backdrop, in the analyst’s view, so it stretched by the same factor. This is not two four-year cycles stacked together, Hyland argues. It is one eight-year cycle, and the July 1 low landed in month 44, which leaves roughly 52 months to run. He also pointed to Bitcoin’s rise from roughly $69,000 to $125,000 as evidence that the current cycle still has room to run. “BTC went from 69k to 125k. It is very ...