Trump 2.0 stock market performance lags behind predecessors

President Trump has long treated the stock market like a personal report card. By that measure, his second term is pulling a B-minus where his first term earned an A. The S&P 500 gained roughly 13% to 16% during the first year of Trump’s second presidency, from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2026. That sounds perfectly respectable until you compare it to the 24.1% surge the index posted during the same window of his first term in 2017. It’s the weakest first-year performance for any new presidential term since George W. Bush’s second kick at the can in 2005. Fewer records, more volatility The index notched 39 record highs during Trump’s second-term first year. In 2017, it set 62. That’s nearly 40% fewer champagne-popping moments for bulls, despite the market technically moving in the right direction. Context matters here. Trump’s second term began after two consecutive years of 20%-plus annual S&P 500 gains. Starting from an already elevated base makes big percentage jumps harder to achieve. According to data from Fundstrat, both the best and worst single-day market moves during the period were closely tied to Trump administration policies. April 2025 tariff adjustments, ...