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Trump called a national security meeting to review Iran’s offer to end the war. Odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sit at 2%, down sharply from 14% yesterday.
The market has collapsed over the past week, with odds falling from 62% to 2%. The meeting itself hasn’t changed trader sentiment toward any concession from Trump. The cost to move the market by 5 points is just $119, which means thin liquidity and exposure to large single trades.
The probability of a diplomatic meeting involving Trump by April 30 is at 1%, down from 2% yesterday and 22% a week ago. With only six days left until resolution, the market is pricing in no substantive engagement before the month’s end.
The market for the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location by June 30 is more active, priced at 20% across various locations. Traders appear to expect a longer timeline for any diplomatic progress.
Total trading volume across these markets hit $5,833 in USDC over the last 24 hours. An 8-point spike occurred at 12:08 PM but didn’t hold, suggesting no sustained conviction behind the move.
Thin liquidity and 2% odds mean the market treats this national security meeting as procedural, not as a precursor to policy change. Traders are waiting for concrete actions or announcements. A YES share on oil sanction relief pays $1 if Trump agrees by April, a high-risk bet at current pricing.
Watch for official White House statements or shifts in Trump’s social media rhetoric on Iran. A single tweet indicating openness to Iran’s proposals could move these thinly traded markets fast.
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