Trump team ends losing streak, eyes renewed diplomacy: CNBC

Donald Trump’s team has reportedly ended a recent losing streak, with discussions on bilateral diplomacy taking center stage, according to CNBC. The report highlights the potential for renewed diplomatic efforts, though specific details about countries involved were not disclosed. The news comes as markets consider the implications for ongoing U.S.-Iran peace talks, particularly concerning the location of the next diplomatic meeting. The current market odds for a U.S.-Iran meeting in the UAE by September 30, 2026, remain low, with a 0.1% YES probability across several sub-markets. Despite the CNBC report, which suggests a potential increase in diplomatic activity, the market has not significantly adjusted its expectations for the UAE as a meeting venue. However, the broader context of Trump’s diplomatic engagement suggests an openness to such talks, which could influence future expectations. The dominant scenario in the market is that no qualifying diplomatic meeting between the U.S. and Iran will occur by the end of September, with a 90% YES probability. This reflects market participants’ skepticism about the likelihood of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough, despite the recent di...