UK regulator considers easing ban on financial prediction markets

Britain’s top financial watchdog is quietly exploring whether to loosen its grip on prediction markets, a category of trading it effectively killed off for retail users back in 2019. The Financial Conduct Authority has been in discussions with trading platforms about potentially easing access to prediction markets, a move that would represent a meaningful reversal in the regulator’s stance toward instruments it once deemed too risky for everyday investors. The reason for the rethink is straightforward: British users aren’t waiting for permission. They’re already trading on US-based platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, routing around domestic restrictions with VPNs. The numbers tell the story Combined monthly transaction volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket surged from under $5 billion in September 2025 to roughly $24 billion by April 2026. That’s nearly a 5x increase in seven months, and a chunk of that activity is coming from users in jurisdictions where these platforms technically aren’t supposed to be accessible. The FCA banned retail binary options in 2019, and many financial prediction market contracts fall squarely under that prohibition. Binary options are essentially yes-or-no...