University of Michigan consumer sentiment jumps to 55.2 in July, beating forecasts

Consumer confidence is having a moment. The University of Michigan’s final July 2026 consumer sentiment reading came in at 55.2, beating the preliminary estimate of 54.4 and well ahead of the consensus expectation near 51.0. That’s an 11.5% jump from June’s reading of 49.5, the kind of single-month swing that makes economists do a double-take. Context matters here. Sentiment hit a record low of 44.8 in May 2026, so the climb to 55.2 represents the highest reading since February 2026. What the numbers actually say The headline improvement wasn’t a fluke driven by one demographic. Gains were broad-based across income levels, education brackets, age groups, and political affiliations. On inflation expectations, the trend moved in the right direction. One-year inflation projections fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in June. Five-year expectations held steady at 3.3%. The Michigan report credited easing gasoline prices as a primary driver of the improved mood. One asterisk worth noting: most survey responses were collected before July 7, meaning the geopolitical tensions tied to Iran that emerged around that date were largely not reflected in this data. Why this matters for markets and crypto One-...