US core CPI expected to cool toward 2.4% in August as goods prices drag inflation lower

Core inflation in the US appears to be losing steam, and Wall Street is paying close attention. Analysts project that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report August’s core Consumer Price Index at somewhere between 2.3% and 2.4% on a year-over-year basis, down from July’s 2.5% reading. The data drops on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET, right in the window where the Federal Reserve is finalizing its thinking ahead of the September FOMC meeting. What the numbers look like July’s core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, came in at 2.5% year-over-year with a 0.2% month-over-month gain. That was already the softest annual reading in five months. For August, TD Securities has penciled in a 2.3% year-over-year figure, with a month-over-month increase of roughly 0.19%. Other forecasters are clustered slightly higher, around 2.4%. Polymarket, the prediction market platform, is telling a similar story. Traders there are pricing a 42% probability that core CPI lands at 2.4% year-over-year, with a 34% chance it comes in at 2.3%. On the headline side, the all-items CPI is expected to hold at approximately 3.4% year-over-year. Why core inflation is slipping The main driver pull...