US military strikes Iran as Gulf hostilities escalate, shares retreat and oil tops $100

US forces launched strikes against Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to lay mines in waters off southern Iran on May 26, marking a sharp escalation in hostilities. West Texas Intermediate crude surged above $100 per barrel on fears that the Strait of Hormuz could face shipping disruptions. Roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum passes through that narrow waterway.

What happened and why it matters

The Pentagon characterized the strikes as “self-defense” actions, targeting both fixed missile installations and Iranian naval vessels actively deploying mines.

The broader conflict traces back to February 28, when a military operation resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A ceasefire was established around April 8, offering a brief window of calm that markets eagerly priced in. Iran had openly threatened retaliation against American forces in the region, and the mine-laying operations suggest those threats were not rhetorical. Diplomatic talks in Qatar aimed at broader de-escalation are still technically ongoing.

Markets feel the tremors

The crypto market has been on its own geopolitical rollercoaster throughout this conflict. When the initial military actions kicked off earlier this year, digital asset markets saw more than $701 million in liquidations. Bitcoin climbed above $72,000 when the April ceasefire was announced. The current re-escalation puts that rally in a precarious position.

Prediction markets and the information edge

Polymarket recorded over $529 million in prediction volumes tied to US-Iran strike scenarios. Select accounts on the platform reportedly pocketed between $1 million and $1.2 million in profits before the February attacks even occurred.

Traders watching this space should pay close attention to two things: the status of Qatar diplomatic talks and any changes to shipping patterns in the Strait of Hormuz. The former will signal whether there is any realistic path to renewed ceasefire. The latter will determine whether oil stays above $100 or pushes even higher.

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