US PCE inflation in July 2026, above expectations

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate for July 2026 came in at 3.7%, slightly above market expectations of 3.6%. This data, released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve when assessing inflationary pressures. The higher-than-expected figure suggests persistent inflation, which could influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Markets are closely watching these developments as they may impact various financial markets, including gold prices and expectations for future Federal Reserve actions. In the market for gold prices in August 2026, current odds show a 61.6% likelihood of gold reaching $4,700, down from 75% the previous day. This movement suggests that participants may be adjusting expectations due to potential hawkish Federal Reserve policies, which could dampen gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Similarly, markets focusing on Federal Reserve decisions from July to October 2026 have seen shifts in probabilities, reflecting the impact of the new inflation data on expectations for rate cuts or pauses. The inflation figures have introduced uncertainty into the markets, ...